Infection = Exposure X Time
Yes, I think this equation is so important that it should be internalized.
Today I want to explore further on “Exposure”
When the virus first appeared we were warned about getting infected from the following ways
- Due to close contacts with an infected person
- From touching surfaces contaminated with the virus
Due to the concerns about being infected from contaminated surfaces
- Places with Covid cases were wiped clean as part of the precautionary measures.
- Do you remember the scene where our Housing Minister went to inspect the spraying in KL because it was thought that this is one mitigation measure?
I think there has been some re-thinking about getting infected from touching contaminated surfaces.
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| Designed by Freepik |
“Coronaviruses are thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Although the virus can survive for a short period on some surfaces, it is unlikely to be spread from domestic or international mail, products or packaging.
However, it may be possible that people can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads”
It is not that there is no virus on contaminated surfaces. The thinking now is that path from the surface to your lung is more important than just having the virus on surfaces.
To get infected, the virus has to be “carried from the surface” to your lungs. One way for this is to touch your mouth or nose after touching the contaminated surface.
That is why wearing mask help to prevent the spread as you are less likely to touch your nose or mouth with the mask on.
But it is not just the virus getting into your body.
To be sick, a sufficient quantity of virus has to be carried into your body.
So to be infected from touching a surface contaminated with Covid 19, you must be very unlucky
- First, the virus must have survived on the surface
- Then you have to be touching your face after touching the surface
- Finally, you must have transferred a sufficient amount of virus into your body
If you get sick from the source, apart from being unlucky, you probably
- Have itchy hands to be touching all surfaces as you walk
- Not wearing a mask (so you deserve to get infected)
- Don’t wash you hands
Of course, the next question is how long can Covid 19 virus survive on surfaces.
I found this from the web supposedly based on 2 studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine and the Lancet
|
Materials |
Examples |
How long can the
virus survive |
|
Metal |
Doorknobs |
3 to 7 days varying
with types of materials |
|
Wood |
Furniture |
2 days |
|
Plastics |
Credit card |
3 – 7 days |
|
Cardboard |
Boxes |
24 hrs |
|
Ceramics/glasses |
Cups |
Up to 4 days |
|
Paper |
Newspaper |
Up to 4 days |
While it may not be precise, I think it is enough to remember that it will survive on surfaces for a few days.
What is the lesson - you are probably more likely to be infected by airborne sources eg being in close contact with a Covid 19 case than by touching doorknobs that were touched by the Covid 19 person.
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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis. The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.
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