Is the backlog the real cause for the record week?

Just when you thought that we went past the worst, we are surprised by another record day in the past week. 

The chart below showed how record-breaking the past week was. When you look at it pictorially, you can see the significant increase in cases from the week before.  It is about 1/3 higher. 

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The authorities have "explained" that the large increase was due to the backlog of cases. This then caused delayed reporting by the private centres that did some of the testings.  

We had the MB of Selangor saying that the private centres would be fined for late reporting. The private centres, in turn, said that they sent the test samples to the govt labs for analysis and any backlog was due to the labs being swamped with the increased testing.

I have previously mentioned that there was a jump in the number of weekly tests (almost doubled) starting from mid-Jan 2021.  So if there was any backlog, it would have started in mid-Jan.  I would have thought that if the labs were been overwhelmed, we would have a rolling backlog from the start of the MCO week (week 15 as per the above chart). So the backlog and late reporting do not sound like a good reason.

If the backlog is the real reason, then in the coming week we should see a drastic drop in the weekly number of cases. In theory, it should be lower than the 24,000 odd cases reported for the week of 21 - 27 Jan 2021.

• If the number of cases is lower than 24,000 for the coming week, it would mean that there was really a backlog

• If the number of cases for the coming week is higher than the 32,000 odd cases, the virus is really running wild

• If the number of cases for the coming week is between 24,000 to 32,000 then either we have a rolling backlog or the MCO is really not effective.

Central region

If you think the national figures were bad, look at the weekly number of cases for the Central region as shown in the chart below. It is almost doubled that the week before.

It makes you hope that it is due to a one-off backlog of cases rather than some other ominous reason.

Let us wait for the coming week.

Positivity rates

Not only did we have a record-breaking number of cases, but we also had a record-breaking weekly positivity rate as can be seen from the chart below. So it is not only more testing leading to more cases, but the % of cases detected for a given test population has gone up. 

The uptrend in the positivity rates suggests that the % of people with the virus currently is higher than all the previous times in the past. I hope that this is an abnormal situation. 

Where is the science?

Listening to the new penalties and more stringent SOP, you would think that it is the general public who is mainly misbehaving and causing the spike in cases.

You would have thought that with all the data, the authorities would be able to pin point the source of the infections.  The only info released is the cluster information.  Reading in between the lines, I would guess that the main source for

 the large increase is the factory and construction sites. 

If so, catching the general public for misbehaving seems like a distraction.

Where is the science?

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.