Transmission by touching contaminated surfaces - was there a great blunder?

Infection = Exposure X Time

Yes, I think this equation is so important that it should be internalized. 

Today I want to explore further on “Exposure”

When the virus first appeared we were warned about getting infected from the following ways

• Due to close contacts with an infected person

• From touching surfaces contaminated with the virus

Due to the concerns about being infected from contaminated surfaces 

• Places with Covid cases were wiped clean as part of the precautionary measures.

• Do you remember the scene where our Housing Minister went to inspect the spraying in KL because it was thought that this is one mitigation measure?

I think there has been some re-thinking about getting infected from touching contaminated surfaces. 

 

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The CDC has revised its guideline to now say that the main transmission is by respiratory droplets and getting it from surfaces is not the main way.  Quoting its webpage”

“Coronaviruses are thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Although the virus can survive for a short period on some surfaces, it is unlikely to be spread from domestic or international mail, products or packaging. 

However, it may be possible that people can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads”

It is not that there is no virus on contaminated surfaces. The thinking now is that path from the surface to your lung is more important than just having the virus on surfaces. 

To get infected, the virus has to be “carried from the surface” to your lungs.  One way for this is to touch your mouth or nose after touching the contaminated surface. 

That is why wearing mask help to prevent the spread as you are less likely to touch your nose or mouth with the mask on.

But it is not just the virus getting into your body.

To be sick, a sufficient quantity of virus has to be carried into your body.

So to be infected from touching a surface contaminated with Covid 19, you must be very unlucky

• First, the virus must have survived on the surface
• Then you have to be touching your face after touching the surface
• Finally, you must have transferred a sufficient amount of virus into your body

If you get sick from the source, apart from being unlucky, you probably

• Have itchy hands to be touching all surfaces as you walk
• Not wearing a mask (so you deserve to get infected)
• Don’t wash you hands 

Of course, the next question is how long can Covid 19 virus survive on surfaces.

I found this from the web supposedly based on 2 studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine and the Lancet

Materials	Examples	How long can the virus survive
Metal	Doorknobs	3 to 7 days varying with types of materials
Wood	Furniture	2 days
Plastics	Credit card	3 – 7 days
Cardboard	Boxes	24 hrs
Ceramics/glasses	Cups	Up to 4 days
Paper	Newspaper	Up to 4 days

While it may not be precise, I think it is enough to remember that it will survive on surfaces for a few days.

What is the lesson - you are probably more likely to be infected by airborne sources eg being in close contact with a Covid 19 case than by touching doorknobs that were touched by the Covid 19 person.

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Be fearless to get more to Stay Safe, Share this Blog

PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such. 

Infection = Exposure X Time. What other ways can you be exposed?

Infection = Exposure X Time

Yesterday we talked about how being in an enclosed space like in a cinema or plane increases the risk of infection because of the extended time spent together.

If you accept the following Business Insider stories about transmission in an enclosed space, you should think many times before going to such a place.

• The odds of an infected person spreading Covid 19 in a closed environment is 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment (OK, this has not been peer-reviewed)

• In 318 cases in China involving 3 or more people, only one case involved people outdoor

But let's move from “Time” to “Exposure”

When you think about exposure, you have to think not of just being 1 or 2 meters apart.  As an article in VOX  suggested, you have to think of other dimensions too. 

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Exposure is more than just about physical distance. The type of activity and the environment are equally important.

When it comes to the environment, we know that enclosed space is riskier than in an open space.  

Along the same lines, an air-conditioned room is riskier as the air gets re-circulated.  Unless of course, you are in a special air-conditioned space where the air is filtered/treated before it is re-circulated.

I am not sure whether how many saw the video of the US army general explaining to Governor Cuomo what had to be done when setting up the field hospital in one of the stadiums in New York -  they had to set up their own air-conditioning system to “clean” the re-circulated air.

In this context, it is safe to fly?   According to my Google search: 

“The air you're breathing inflight is re-circulated and filtered regularly, which means you're not being exposed to things like bacteria and viruses through the recycled air.

In fact, because of the high-efficiency filters on most commercial airlines and the frequency the air is re-circulated and filtered, the air you're breathing on your flight is likely much cleaner and less contaminated than most office buildings and is on par with the air in most hospitals.”

Wow.  We are safe from getting infected from re-circulated air while being in a plane.  

But there is still a risk - it comes from breathing in the virus before the air is re-circulated.  Ha. You cannot win.

Since we are on the subject of air-conditioning, 

• Is your office air-conditioning system of the same standard as the airplane?
• Shouldn't all the public gathering places eg cinema, convention hall check that their air-conditioning system can filter/treat re-circulated air as part of the SOP?

I am sure you can think of other environments where the risk of infection is higher. 

When it comes to activity, the risk is because Covid 19 is spread from respiratory droplets. The risk of catching the coronavirus “is breathing in other people's breath.”

 

When it is put like that then those activities that involve lots of people with heaving breathing, lots of talking and shouting, laughing, or singing are riskier eg an air-conditioned gym with lots of people exercising with droplets flying all over the place.  

VOX cited a Washington state case where a person with the virus attended choir practice, and more than half of the other singers subsequently got sick. This was labeled a “super-spreading” event, as one infection led to 32 others. 

But what made this event so risky was the convergence of many risk factors: 

• the singing activity during which the infected person released viral particles into the air, 

• the time spent together - the practice was 2.5 hours,

• the interaction between the choir members in an enclosed space - not only did they all practice together, but they also split up into smaller groups and shared cookies and tea.

So now I understand why karaoke, clubs, and bars are associated with Covid 19.  There is much singing, shouting, cheering and close conversations (due to the noise)

Moral of the story. Spend time in the library!

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such. 

Infection = Exposure X Time. How many get this?

We ended the week with about half of the number of cases c/w the week before.  

I wouldn't read too much about the reduction until both of the following have been met

• We have resolved the foreign workers' testing 
• We are sure that the new home quarantine procedure for those entering the country don't have hiccups

The foreign workers are at risk not because they are foreigners per se, but because they generally live in close quarters.  The best example is that we don't have clusters of foreign domestic maids.

As for those entering Malaysia, the story of how 2 visitors broke New Zealand's "victory" on eliminating the virus is the best evidence that we cannot be too careful when it comes to this group of people. 

 

The Penang govt is asking Putrajaya to allow cinemas to operate. What are they thinking?

I think all our officials should be sent a copy of my 16 June posting with the Covid 19 equation

      Infection = Exposure X Time

The equation states that our risk is dependent not only on contact with those infected but also on how long we are in contact.

Being in an enclosed space like the cinema and or plane increases the chance of infections significantly because of the time spent together. 

This is well illustrated by this case from China where visitors went on 2 buses to visit a temple.  Unfortunately, there was a person with Covid 19 in one of the buses.

When the buses arrived at the temple after a few hours of traveling, they all got down and mixed together during the temple visit.  Thereafter they boarded the same buses to go back.

Later they found out that a significant number of those on the same bus as the person with Covid 19 got infected whereas those on the other bus did not have any case.

  

It demonstrated that it is not just close contact, but how much time was spent together that affects your risk of infection.  

If the equation is too complicated, our officials should least watch the video on the simulation of Covid spreading in an aeroplane and/or restaurants.

While these are simulations, they are models to help us understand the situation very much like how the virus model is one of MOH inputs to determine whether to have the MCO.

Afterall we want govt response to be science-based.  Unfortunately, we also have Trump-like politicians and officials in Malaysia who either don’t want or cannot understand the science.

So I hope the cinema idea is thrown out. 

I have been complaining that we are still getting the same advice from MOH even though the conditions in the country have changed from MCO to RMCO.

Initially, I wasn’t sure whether it was a fair complaint.  However, I have since found that there are many articles out there that seem to be in sync with my thinking.

I recently came across one in the Business Insider which suggested that 4 factors can raise your risk of infections

• Crowds
• Enclosed space
• Close contacts
• Hard to social distance

These are not new things.  But the new angle is that our risk depends on the interplay of these 4 factors.

So if you have a situation like the cinema where all the 4 are present, there is a higher risk than say a run in the park where there is less “intensity” on these factors.

The article has a chart showing the risk profile of various activities. If you are interested you can read them yourself here.

I have picked up a few key activities and re-done the chart as shown

As you look at the chart, you should remember the equation and think of the risk as 

• Higher with longer time spent in contact with the infected
• Higher with greater exposure to the 4 factors

That equation and these 4 factors have given me fresh insights about dealing with the asymptomatic (whether they are locals or foreign workers).  I have always been complaining that we cannot avoid them as either co-workers or customers.  

• The ideal is to be living in a green zone

• But if it is not a green zone, and you have to go out, then think about not only minimizing the contact time but also how to steer clear from activities where the 4 factors cannot be avoided. 

Now to come back to my complaint about the MOH briefing.  The above is information that the general public would not be aware of.  I mean most people don’t really have the time to do the research.

I hope MOH would cover such examples more often in their briefing. 

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Be fearless to get more to Stay Safe, Share this Blog

PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such. 

Do we know what to do anymore to avoid risk?

Do you remember my complaint about how we don't seem to get daily data on the number of tests (from Worldodometer).  Refer to my posting of 10 June 2020.

We have another week of such missing data.  I think what MOH said a day or two ago may explain this.  

According to MOH, the govt had conducted 9,279 tests on 14 June but they don't have the total for the country as the private sector had yet to report in.  I have a funny feeling that we now seem to be reporting weekly data due to backlog reporting by the private sector.

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Having solved one "mystery", there is still one more - why does the equivalent number of daily tests seem so low

Week              No of equivalent tests per day

1 - 8 June              8,232

9 - 15 Jun             5,896

We are supposed to have the capacity to conduct 30,000 odd tests per day.  Yet the data showed that we are only doing less than a 1/4 of the capacity.  

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I am not sure whether to laugh or cry.  I started 2 blogs in last month – this Covid blog and an investment blog i4value.asia.

The Covid one was actually started in mid-May but my son back-posted some of my earlier comments with my old school mates so that the first posting was dated 1 May.

The investment blog was started in the last week of May.  Unlike the Covid blog which I post daily, the investment blog is meant to be a weekly posting (except for the first few which were posted together).

The strange thing is that although started later and with very less frequent posts, the investment blog today has doubled the number of daily page views c/w the Covid blog. 

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This means that people are less interested in health and mortality c/w trying to make money. I am not sure whether this is a good sign for the country.

If you all want to know how hard it is to control the virus, just think of New Zealand. In my 7 Jun blog I mentioned then that they were close to eliminating the virus. 

Last week they declared victory.  But then yesterday after 3 1/2 weeks of no cases, they had 2 cases that were due to visitors from UK.  Back to the drawing board. 

So if NZ has to continue the war, we should not be any different.  Think of the RMCO as a new phase of the Covid war.   

We have to figure out how to control the spread given the additional mobility and the likelihood that there will be many places where social distancing is relaxed eg flying and public transport.  Soon schools will be open and there will be an unknown source of infection for grandparents.   

When I first started my comments (with my friends) way back in Mac, it was about trying to 

• Guess the virus trajectory.  Remember that the number of daily cases was going up daily

• Figure out whether the virus would overwhelm our medical capacity.   Those were the days when you have the Governor of New York talking about them not having the ventilators.

• Figuring out when the MCO will end

Today my main concern is the risk of being infected as the reality is that 

• We cannot always stay at home.  
• We cannot avoid the foreign workers
• We cannot prevent our maid from going out forever

This is a new scenario and is very different from the MCO one where everyone is forced to stay at home. 

The strange thing is that MOH has not changed the message.  Theirs is still the general 3 C, 3 W, 3 S (see my 9 June post).  Shouldn't this be modified to cater to the situation on the ground? 

So let me start with some rules of thumb to minimize the risk of infection under this new phase. 

1) If you are in a green zone, then I wouldn’t worry about the infection.  Note that the green zone could change colour as the sick can travel inter-state and infect those in the green zone.  

This zoning is also not helpful if you stay in the Klang Valley but if you are outside the Klang Valley, I think it is a pretty good indicator of safety.  

I would go so far to say that if you are in this green zone, you can take a liberal attitude towards social distancing and wearing masks. 

2) If you are not in a green zone

.  

Malaysiakini has a map showing the location of the cases in Malaysia.  If you click on a button showing a specific location, it opens up a description of the case.  

It is a helpful guide to know which specific building had Covid cases.  

Unfortunately, I wish this could be screened to show only those for the past 3 weeks.  There is no point to know that a particular building had Covid in Mac. 

3) The biggest risk comes from contacts with asymptomatic cases. It would appear that we have contradictory advice from flying, taking public transport and getting a haircut.  

With all the international discussions, I hope the authorities are finding out what other countries are doing rather than re-invent the wheel.  

BTW, tf you have not seen the Youtube video, you should watch this one about this "long-distance" haircut. 

4) Maid.  During the MCO, it was simple enough as the maid could not go out.  Now that there is no restriction on them moving about I am still not sure what to do

• I know my maid will wear a mask when she goes out
• But we don’t know who they meet.  So we are trying to limit the places she goes to
• She will have to bath and change into new clothes when she comes home

Do any of you have better ideas?

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Be fearless to get more to Stay Safe, Share this Blog

PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such. 

Mission accomplished OR halfway there?

Both MOH and our Defence Minister have announced that they will no longer have their daily press briefing on the Covid 19 situation in the country.  They will now do the briefing on Mon, Wed and Fri. 

I do hope that this is not a sort of mission accomplished or victory lap sign.  Or maybe they want to send the message that we are halfway by cutting the briefing into half?

 

I don’t think it is time for mission accomplished yet as the chart below (which excludes the detainees) shows that we still have cases every day for the past 14 days.

• Flattening the curve is not mission accomplished. 
• These people were infected prior to these 14 days.  Even if you ignore the returnees, this means that the virus is still out there.  This cannot be mission accomplished. 

What are the potential sources of infections?

1) We still have returnees but now they just have to self-quarantine at home. This is a new procedure since early this month to replace the mandatory quarantine.  

• In other countries that have supposedly controlled the virus, there have been new cases due to people going back to the country.  

• If I was the govt, I would have experimented with the home quarantine procedures first before applying it wholesale.  

• We have seen many u-turns in procedure yet somehow the govt thinks that we can change the form of the quarantine without having a trial run to iron out the kinks.

• It is over-confidence or being irresponsible or what knowing that there are many returnees who are sick? 

2) I don’t think we have a solution yet on the foreign workers that is based on reality ie

• They are living in close quarters
• There is a strong chance that they may not seek treatment if sick
• They are going to work ie mixing with locals

What happened to the multi-agency task force that was supposed to come up with some solution? 

3) We still have “spontaneous” infections. It is my way of saying that the virus is still out there.  I hope some research scientist is trying to figure out this problem.  Otherwise, we are just pretending that it will “mysteriously go away” to quote President Trump. 

If you think this spontaneous infection is a joke, just remember that our ex-PM trial was postponed because a member of the defense team had tested for Covid. 

4) Of course, the latest scary story is about how China is currently having some cases due to frozen food.

• MOH has come out to say that they have not heard of transmission by food because we cook our food and the heat kills the virus

• This statement must rank the same as the one about drinking hot water 

What about catching the virus from handling the food?  I am sure there is a good chance of this if indeed that virus can be shipped around the world with the frozen food. 

If China is taking this seriously, shouldn’t we do so?

 
Flying

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To be fair, I think many countries are also groping about to figure what are the do’s and don'ts’ to open up the economy. So we are no different from many countries. 

Notwithstanding this, I find the one about flying to be the strangest.

How can you ask people to social distance yet when they travel, this does not apply. 

I am not sure whether you remember the equation in my 16 May post.

 

It is about this professor from the University of Massachusetts who had this interesting equation for Covid 19. 

Exposure X Time = Infection

 

If not done so, you should read his blog.

According to him, the 5 most contagious places are the home, office, public transport, social events and restaurants.  He argued that based on contact tracing studies, the highest risk of transmission comes from being enclosed in a crowded place. 

I also saw this video about how passengers on a plane can spread the virus due to the air circulation in the plane's enclosed space.  No amount of social distancing is going to help. 

If our Minister made the traveling decision after seeing the video then thumbs up as he acknowledged that all the passengers are going to be infected anyway …so why have the social distancing!!

But all is not lost.  I have a suggestion.  

Since there is now a rapid test kit, we should test all those as part of the boarding procedures.  Given that flying is not cheap, the ticket price could include the testing fee. 

This should give comfort to all those planning to fly. 

So how come the govt is not thinking of this?

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Be fearless to get more to Stay Safe, Share this Blog

PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such. 

Do we assess how well we have managed Covid 19 by public opinions or by fact based metrics?

Our Defense Minister said yesterday that “people acceptance to the govt actions received recognition in a global survey where Malaysia was ranked among the top 5 countries in the world with the highest public approval” 

What exactly was the Minister saying?

• Malaysia is among the 5 nations in the world to have succeeded in controlling the spread of Covid 19, 
• He did not want to draw attention that this ranking was based on a survey of public opinions.

You and I know the difference between public opinions and fact-based ranking. 

He did not name the source of the survey and it got me thinking as I remembered seeing a FMT headline on 8 May stating “Malaysia ranks 4th in a global survey on public approval of Covid 19 crisis management”

So did “the people” changed their minds over the one month period?

Unless we are comparing apple to apple, we have to be careful about how statistics and surveys are used.

So instead of public opinions what could be some fact-based performance measures?

• One could be the number of infections per million population.  Worldodometer does a daily ranking covering 215 nations with No 1 as the worst.   On 14 Jun 2020, Malaysia ranked 127. The US is, of course, No 1

• Another could be the number of Covid deaths per million population.  Worldodometer also has a daily ranking with No 1 as the worst.  On 14 Jun 2020, Malaysia ranked 135.  Saint Mario is No 1 and the US is No 9. 

• We could look at the total costs (treatment, testing, contact tracing) incurred to control the virus.  I don't think anyone has published such figures yet. 

• We also could look at the economic cost to the country in terms of GDP decline and the “helicopter money” given out as part of the Covid performance metrics.  

I am sure somebody is probably compiling all these statistics and one day we will have a more fact-based performance ranking covering all the countries in the world.  

When this is available I would not be surprised if the results from the fact-based indicators and the court of public opinion differs. 

As to the subject of “people survey”, there is one by YouGov (who described themselves as a global public opinion organization).  They ask people to share their experiences of the global pandemic and use that unique insight to provide their survey findings.   

They have charts that give you an indication of how the “people's opinions” have changed since mid-Feb 2020 till 9 June 2020.  

There are many countries covered in the survey and for those who want to look further, you can visit YouGov. 

I have picked up some comparisons that I thought looked relevant to my concerns about the risk of infection and have summarized them below with the appropriate charts. 

1) Avoiding crowded places 

You will be pleased to note that we are still avoiding crowded places despite the RMCO as can be seen from the chart below.   

BTW all the charts have the % of public opinion on the vertical axis while the horizontal axis shows the time from end Feb 2020 to 9 June 2020.

So the line from left to right shown how the public opinion for this question changed from before the MCO period to currently. 

 

By YouGov

2) Fear of catching the virus.  

• Malaysians are still as fearful as ever from even before the MCO.  

• Despite the “kiasu” attitude of Singaporeans, we are more fearful than Singaporeans.  

This is funny considering that they have 4 to 5 times more cases than we have.  Are you going to interpret this as a failure of our govt?

 

By YouGov

3) Isolating the sick

• Before the MCO, Malaysians were not so supportive of the quarantine measures, but we have changed our minds since then.  The support today is about 80% c/w 60% in the pre-MCO days

• In this respect, Malaysians think like the other people in the region including even Australians.

• The country in my sample that stood out was Taiwan where people seemed relatively not to be so supportive of the quarantine 

Extracted from YouGov

 

 

4) How well did the govt handle the virus

This is the opinion that our Defence Minister was looking at.  Well, our Defense Minister should be pleased to know the answer. 

• Malaysia currently comes in 2nd place in the world.  No1 is Vietnam.  Taiwan, Australia, and Norway are No 3, 4 and 5 respectively

• Given Vietnam and Malaysia's top 5 world ranking with about 90 % score each, none of the Asean countries come close.  Singapore's score is 80% while the Philippines and Indonesia scores are about 60% each. 

Extracted from YouGov

The real mystery is why does Malaysia rank so high in the survey?  I am not suggesting that we have not done well in controlling the spread of the virus.  But the people's opinion ranking seems out of sync with the Worldodometer ranking.  Think about this. 

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Be fearless to get more to Stay Safe, Share this Blog

PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such. 

Testing foreign workers: Why are we running around in circles?

 

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We are once more running round in circles regarding the foreign workers

1. We have cases of foreign workers infecting Malaysians
2. Employers are not fully using the Socso subsidy scheme to test their foreign workers
3. We have govt officials making nonsensical suggestions about testing foreign workers
4. There is a recent "not well thought out" report about foreign workers by a think tank

And while all the above is happening, you and I continue to be at risk of being infected by foreign workers.

All because we don’t have a sensible foreign workers testing plan. 

Yet there is a way out as I suggested in my 11 May post.

Let me lay out my case. 

1) Infection by foreign workers

There is no better example of this than the recent barber incident where this Pakistani barber had tested positive by a private hospital.  He was working all the while doing private services house-to-house. 

His contacts included 21 house calls customers, 15 in-shop customers and 4 housemates.  These 40 had to be screened and quarantined.  Pity the customers who became at risk just for a haircut.  Incidentally, my last haircut was the week before MCO and now I am going to keep it long like my university days. 

2) Socso

Socso has this Prehatin programme where employers would be subsidized half the testing fee.  Have you seen the recent status report on this scheme? 

• Based on Socso data, 31,301 foreign workers covering all sectors have been tested. 
• Socso panel is capable of conducting 15,000 tests per day.  

So it meant that the 31,000 could have been tested in 2 days.  There are lots of unused capacity. 

I inferred that employers are not rushing in to make use of this.  

If you are an employer of say 100 foreign workers, and given the RM 300 per test, even with the RM 150 subsidy it will cost you RM 15,000 to send all your workers for testing.

Can you imagine spending this RM 3,000 only to find out that even if none of them is tested positive, you may have to send them again in a week or two for another round?  Is there another round of subsidy?

Our govt has not thought this through.  No employer is going to spend time and money doing an idiotic thing.

3) Govt nonsensical suggestions

Let me illustrate with the barber case.

Our Minister has suggested that we should ask our barber for his test report to show proof that he has been tested negative.  

I would have thought that it would be common knowledge by now that testing negative on one day just meant that you have not been infected on the day of the testing. 

If a barber is tested negative in the morning, he could be infected tonight when he goes home if his housemates who got sick a few days ago has just reached a stage where the viral load is such that he can now infect everyone in the house.

4) Think Tank

There is a recent Khazanah Research Institute report arguing that failure to protect the migrant workers would have an impact on public health and the economy. 

The summary said that we must test, isolate and treat foreign workers.  Have they been sleeping? To do all the research and say things that we are currently doing as if it is something profound.   

There has not been any news that in the testing and treatment, the foreign workers are being treated differently from Malaysians.

You would have thought that the important thing is to come up with specific proposals on how to control the transmission.  Specifically, I am thinking of testing and contact tracing. 

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What to do?

The reality is that as long as we have the virus and foreign workers, there will be a risk of infection by foreign workers.  

We don’t have the capacity to test all of them.  No employers want to spend money repeatedly.  Making it mandatory to test foreign workers may improve compliance but it does not address the real issue of the need for repeated testing. 

But there is an alternative that I have suggested in a tongue-in-cheek manner in my May 11 post.  Let me quote from the post"

“One way to do this is for employers to send about 0.1 % of its foreign workers for testing every week.  So if an employer has 100 foreign workers, this means sending one every 2 - 3 months for testing.  This would be equivalent to testing 2,000 - 4,000 foreign workers every week (for the whole country) about the average weekly testing rate for the foreign workers during the MCO.  The main difference is that we will have some form of randomized testing with this plan, be affordable, and be within our testing capacity.”

This plan works on the basis that the foreign workers generally stay together so that we can actually do with a sample test of one or two.  If the results are positive, then MOH can take over to test all the housemates and working colleagues.  If the results are negative, the employer can repeat the sampling test with different workers later.

MOH and the govt with all the statisticians and epidemiologists would be able to work out what is a realistic % to test  than my “finger in the wind" 0.01%

So for those of you who have contacts with MOH or some minister, please send them this post. 

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.