How effective is the CMCO compared to the MCO for Malaysia?

We closed the current week (22 to 28 Oct) with 6,484 cases.  This is higher than the 5,415 cases for the previous week 

This is not the first time that we have "lockdowns".

• We had the Mac MCO for the whole country although certain areas had the more stringent EMCO

• Currently, we have the CMCO for Sabah, Kedah, Selangor, KL, and Putrajaya.  OK a few areas are also under EMCO although we now call it TECMO (for temporary, as if we needed to remind people that it is not permanent)

The CMCO is not as stringent as the MCO in that most of the economic activities can continue under the CMCO.

Given the less stringent CMCO and that not all states are involved, does it mean that it will take a longer time c/w with Mac/April to bring the virus under control?

To get an answer to this question we compared the current pace of infections with those in Mac/April

Specifically, I used trendline to illustrate my point

When we talk of bringing the virus under control, there are two perspectives

• the first is just to get the number of cases to start trending down

• the second is to get the number of weekly cases to be below 10% of the number of cases at the peak week

At this stage, we are just looking at the former perspective

Synchronizing MCO and CMCO - Chart 1

Malaysia had started its MCO in the week of 12 to 18 Mac 2020 (week 1) and as can be seen from the Mac/Apr chart below, the number of weekly cases started to come down in week 5 (9 to 15 April).

The CMCO for Selangor, KL, and Putrajaya was implemented on week 15 to 21 Oct 2020. To synchronize the current situation with that of Mac, I have numbered this as week 1 in the Oct/Nov chart as per below.  

Based on this, we have just completed week 3 (22 to 28 Oct).

If we assume that we have the Mac trajectory, then the current weekly number of cases would only come down in week 5 ie (week 5 to 11 Nov) 

But if the CMCO type of lockdown is not as effective as the MCO type of lockdown, then it would take longer.

Do the statistics so far give any clue on whether it would take longer?

Chart 1: Comparative charts

Trendline projections - Chart 2

To illustrate the pace of the infection, I used trend lines to show how the number of cases changed from week to week.

Referring to the Mac/Apr chart below

• The red line shows the trend from week 1 to week 2

• The green line shows the trend from week 2 to week 3

You will notice that the green line is less steep than the red line implying that the pace of infection has come down. 

You will also see that for week 3 to 4 of Mac/Apr, we have the same green trendline. 

It meant that from week 2 to 4, the increase in the number of cases per week was about the same.  For those who slept thru maths class, it meant that the pace of infection has reduced.  

The same increase in the number of cases but a slower pace?  How can this be?  Mathematically it is correct as the pace is based on dividing the increase in the number of cases by the previous week's total number of cases. A bigger total for the previous week will result in a slower pace.

To compare what is happening currently, I have plotted similar trendlines for the Oct/Nov chart as below. 

Reading from the green trendline in the Oct/Nov chart

• If the virus is controlled as effectively as in Mac/Apr, then for next week we would expect to have 7,500 cases

• If it is more, then we can conclude that the CMCO is not going to be as effective and we can see more lockdown extensions

• If on the other hand, the number of cases is less than 7,500, we can be confident that the CMCO is working better. 

Chart 2: Comparative charts with trendlines 

Sabah TEMCO

You may ask why don’t I start plotting the lines from when the TEMCO started in Sabah?

I think that even with using simple tools like trendlines we ought to be comparing apples to apples.

The Sabah TEMCO is only confined to Sabah and thus would not be reflective of what is happening nationwide.

But if they had ban flights from Sabah or had the quarantine for those flying in from Sabah, then I would have counted the TEMCO as week 1 and the virus would probably be under control by now. 

But this is with hindsight and does not help.  But if we have another state election in Sarawak, this could be an important lesson. 

Conclusion

The real question is if the number of cases next week is less than 7,500 does it mean that the number of cases would start to come down in week 5 or would it take longer?

In theory, if the CMCO is less effective, it would take longer.

At this juncture, the trendlines are not able to give any insight into this question.

My forecast is that the week of 29 Oct to 4 Nov would still have a higher number of weekly cases ie > 6,484.  This will be the peak and thereafter it will start to decline.  

But it will take longer than week 6 to get below the peak. We should not be surprised as the CMCO is not as effective as the MCO

But if the number of cases really comes down, then we have a way to control the virus by keeping the economy going.

My view of any "lockdown" is to bring the virus to a level that is below the capacity of the medical system.

For Peninsular Malaysia, we are still operating below our medical capacity.  But for Sabah, I think it is up to their neck. 

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.