We ended the week with the national number of cases at about the same level as those 2 weeks ago.
Week No of Covid-19 cases
21 - 27 Jan 24,735
28 Jan - 3 Feb 32,798
4 - 10 Feb 24,692
Although the number of cases is about the same as that 2 weeks ago, the current positivity rate is higher than that 2 weeks ago as can be seen from the chart below. I have marked the one 2 weeks ago in a red oval so that you can see the difference.
Don't be misled by the positivity rates. The actual number of tests carried out currently is less than that 2 weeks ago.
Week No of Tests
21 - 27 Jan 442 k
28 Jan - 3 Feb 370 k
4 - 10 Feb 381 k
You can interpret the results in 2 ways
- the current number of cases is not higher than that 2 weeks ago because the number of tests carried out was 14 % lower. Less test = fewer cases. This could also be due to delays in reporting the test results so that we could have more "backlog" in the coming week. If true, expect a spike in the coming week. But I can't think of a reason why the number of tests should be lower.
- If you assume that there are valid reasons for fewer tests (eg not many reported clusters of infection) then the incidence in the population is getting worst compared to that 2 weeks ago. If true, there will be more cases in the future since the MCO is being relaxed.
It makes you wonder whether anyone is correlating the data with the SOP being introduced and/or the relaxation of the lockdown.
Central zone
If you look at the Central Region we have the following picture.
We can conclude that there was certainly some backlog last week, but the number of cases for the current week is still higher than that 2 weeks ago.
Conclusion - The number of cases is not coming down yet. The backlog excuse seems weak for the current situation. For the Central region, the MCO is not really working.
Stay Safe
