We all know that the number of Covid-19 cases we see today is due to people who got infected a week or 2 ago. In other words, any chart showing the number of cases is a picture of how the people behaved or misbehaved a week or two ago.
The chart below shows the weekly Covid-19 cases since the start of the current wave in Malaysia in Oct of last year.
- You can see the number of cases going up to peak towards the end of Jan 2021.
- The number of weekly cases started to decline till the end of Mac 2021
As you can see, since then the number of cases has started to climb. We are now into the 3rd week of the continuous uptrend.
The question then is whether it would start to decline or continue upwards or plateau at the current 15,000 cases per week level?
To forecast what is going to happen for the coming week, you need to ask yourself whether Malaysians behave differently last week compare to 2 weeks ago? If we had behaved in the same manner, why would the number of cases come done?
I am not confident in predicting a lower number of weekly cases for the coming week. But I think that there is a good chance that the numbers would come done in time for Raya. Why? Because MCO had been declared in some of those areas with high infections. We also have action been taken for schools.
The challenging question is why the number of cases for the current wave far exceeded those in the Mac 2020 wave. The chart below shows the contrast.
You know what was done in Mac 2020. We had a complete nationwide lockdown. If nothing else the chart illustrates the effectiveness of a completed lockdown vs what we have been doing for the past few months.
Of course, we could argue that we may have a different strain of virus this round. Some may argue that the political situation is different this time. The point is that we can see the vast differences in the choices that the country had made.
Ignoring the impact of the vaccine, I would think that it is unlikely for us to get the virus down to double-digit daily infections with the current approach. It was an economic choice and given this choice the only way forward are
- more conscious efforts in social distancing and wearing masks
- getting more vaccinated
- more self-control in not going out
- no more relaxation of the rules
