Do we assess how well we have managed Covid 19 by public opinions or by fact based metrics?

Our Defense Minister said yesterday that “people acceptance to the govt actions received recognition in a global survey where Malaysia was ranked among the top 5 countries in the world with the highest public approval” 

What exactly was the Minister saying?

• Malaysia is among the 5 nations in the world to have succeeded in controlling the spread of Covid 19, 
• He did not want to draw attention that this ranking was based on a survey of public opinions.

You and I know the difference between public opinions and fact-based ranking. 

He did not name the source of the survey and it got me thinking as I remembered seeing a FMT headline on 8 May stating “Malaysia ranks 4th in a global survey on public approval of Covid 19 crisis management”

So did “the people” changed their minds over the one month period?

Unless we are comparing apple to apple, we have to be careful about how statistics and surveys are used.

So instead of public opinions what could be some fact-based performance measures?

• One could be the number of infections per million population.  Worldodometer does a daily ranking covering 215 nations with No 1 as the worst.   On 14 Jun 2020, Malaysia ranked 127. The US is, of course, No 1

• Another could be the number of Covid deaths per million population.  Worldodometer also has a daily ranking with No 1 as the worst.  On 14 Jun 2020, Malaysia ranked 135.  Saint Mario is No 1 and the US is No 9. 

• We could look at the total costs (treatment, testing, contact tracing) incurred to control the virus.  I don't think anyone has published such figures yet. 

• We also could look at the economic cost to the country in terms of GDP decline and the “helicopter money” given out as part of the Covid performance metrics.  

I am sure somebody is probably compiling all these statistics and one day we will have a more fact-based performance ranking covering all the countries in the world.  

When this is available I would not be surprised if the results from the fact-based indicators and the court of public opinion differs. 

As to the subject of “people survey”, there is one by YouGov (who described themselves as a global public opinion organization).  They ask people to share their experiences of the global pandemic and use that unique insight to provide their survey findings.   

They have charts that give you an indication of how the “people's opinions” have changed since mid-Feb 2020 till 9 June 2020.  

There are many countries covered in the survey and for those who want to look further, you can visit YouGov. 

I have picked up some comparisons that I thought looked relevant to my concerns about the risk of infection and have summarized them below with the appropriate charts. 

1) Avoiding crowded places 

You will be pleased to note that we are still avoiding crowded places despite the RMCO as can be seen from the chart below.   

BTW all the charts have the % of public opinion on the vertical axis while the horizontal axis shows the time from end Feb 2020 to 9 June 2020.

So the line from left to right shown how the public opinion for this question changed from before the MCO period to currently. 

 

By YouGov

2) Fear of catching the virus.  

• Malaysians are still as fearful as ever from even before the MCO.  

• Despite the “kiasu” attitude of Singaporeans, we are more fearful than Singaporeans.  

This is funny considering that they have 4 to 5 times more cases than we have.  Are you going to interpret this as a failure of our govt?

 

By YouGov

3) Isolating the sick

• Before the MCO, Malaysians were not so supportive of the quarantine measures, but we have changed our minds since then.  The support today is about 80% c/w 60% in the pre-MCO days

• In this respect, Malaysians think like the other people in the region including even Australians.

• The country in my sample that stood out was Taiwan where people seemed relatively not to be so supportive of the quarantine 

Extracted from YouGov

 

 

4) How well did the govt handle the virus

This is the opinion that our Defence Minister was looking at.  Well, our Defense Minister should be pleased to know the answer. 

• Malaysia currently comes in 2nd place in the world.  No1 is Vietnam.  Taiwan, Australia, and Norway are No 3, 4 and 5 respectively

• Given Vietnam and Malaysia's top 5 world ranking with about 90 % score each, none of the Asean countries come close.  Singapore's score is 80% while the Philippines and Indonesia scores are about 60% each. 

Extracted from YouGov

The real mystery is why does Malaysia rank so high in the survey?  I am not suggesting that we have not done well in controlling the spread of the virus.  But the people's opinion ranking seems out of sync with the Worldodometer ranking.  Think about this. 

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.