Infection = Exposure X Time. How many get this?

We ended the week with about half of the number of cases c/w the week before.  

I wouldn't read too much about the reduction until both of the following have been met

• We have resolved the foreign workers' testing 
• We are sure that the new home quarantine procedure for those entering the country don't have hiccups

The foreign workers are at risk not because they are foreigners per se, but because they generally live in close quarters.  The best example is that we don't have clusters of foreign domestic maids.

As for those entering Malaysia, the story of how 2 visitors broke New Zealand's "victory" on eliminating the virus is the best evidence that we cannot be too careful when it comes to this group of people. 

 

The Penang govt is asking Putrajaya to allow cinemas to operate. What are they thinking?

I think all our officials should be sent a copy of my 16 June posting with the Covid 19 equation

      Infection = Exposure X Time

The equation states that our risk is dependent not only on contact with those infected but also on how long we are in contact.

Being in an enclosed space like the cinema and or plane increases the chance of infections significantly because of the time spent together. 

This is well illustrated by this case from China where visitors went on 2 buses to visit a temple.  Unfortunately, there was a person with Covid 19 in one of the buses.

When the buses arrived at the temple after a few hours of traveling, they all got down and mixed together during the temple visit.  Thereafter they boarded the same buses to go back.

Later they found out that a significant number of those on the same bus as the person with Covid 19 got infected whereas those on the other bus did not have any case.

  

It demonstrated that it is not just close contact, but how much time was spent together that affects your risk of infection.  

If the equation is too complicated, our officials should least watch the video on the simulation of Covid spreading in an aeroplane and/or restaurants.

While these are simulations, they are models to help us understand the situation very much like how the virus model is one of MOH inputs to determine whether to have the MCO.

Afterall we want govt response to be science-based.  Unfortunately, we also have Trump-like politicians and officials in Malaysia who either don’t want or cannot understand the science.

So I hope the cinema idea is thrown out. 

I have been complaining that we are still getting the same advice from MOH even though the conditions in the country have changed from MCO to RMCO.

Initially, I wasn’t sure whether it was a fair complaint.  However, I have since found that there are many articles out there that seem to be in sync with my thinking.

I recently came across one in the Business Insider which suggested that 4 factors can raise your risk of infections

• Crowds
• Enclosed space
• Close contacts
• Hard to social distance

These are not new things.  But the new angle is that our risk depends on the interplay of these 4 factors.

So if you have a situation like the cinema where all the 4 are present, there is a higher risk than say a run in the park where there is less “intensity” on these factors.

The article has a chart showing the risk profile of various activities. If you are interested you can read them yourself here.

I have picked up a few key activities and re-done the chart as shown

As you look at the chart, you should remember the equation and think of the risk as 

• Higher with longer time spent in contact with the infected
• Higher with greater exposure to the 4 factors

That equation and these 4 factors have given me fresh insights about dealing with the asymptomatic (whether they are locals or foreign workers).  I have always been complaining that we cannot avoid them as either co-workers or customers.  

• The ideal is to be living in a green zone

• But if it is not a green zone, and you have to go out, then think about not only minimizing the contact time but also how to steer clear from activities where the 4 factors cannot be avoided. 

Now to come back to my complaint about the MOH briefing.  The above is information that the general public would not be aware of.  I mean most people don’t really have the time to do the research.

I hope MOH would cover such examples more often in their briefing. 

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.