The Ultimate way to visualize Covid 19 transmisson

Infection = Exposure X Time

One of the things that I have found out over the months in looking at articles on Covid 19 is that they all tend to focus on one particular aspect of the virus.  Some are about treatments, some are about economic issues while others are about how the infection is transmitted.

But even those that covered transmission feature a particular topic.

So as a layman reading all these materials, I sometimes have issues trying to place them in the correct context.

That is until I came across the above Infection Equation.  Suddenly I have a framework to bring together all the various articles that I have read. 

To help me visualize better, I have developed the following "mindmap"

Designed by Freepik

When you look at the mindmap, remember the following

• The thicker arrows signify greater risk/impact c/w to the narrower arrows
• There are more dimensions when it comes to Exposure

I hope the mindmap is also helpful to you when you think about how to minimize your risk. 

So what is your risk if you are served by an asymptomatic person?  

Looking at the mindmap, the advice to avoid crowds or crowded places does not help when we are talking about being served by an asymptomatic person.    

I am not even sure whether it is practical to avoid close contact.

But let's assume that he serves you from a few feet away. He can still transmit the virus to you in one of two ways

• Airborne – he can fill the room with the virus by breathing or coughing.  I would expect him to wear a mask so if he doesn’t wear one, you should be careful

• Surface – he can deposit the virus onto the stuff you buy and/or the packing materials.  He can also contaminate the shop surfaces.  So if you wear a mask and practice good hygiene, hopefully, you can minimize infection from touching the shop surfaces. 

But we cannot avoid touching the packing materials or the food he prepared or served.  Just think of the worst-case scenario where he coughed directly onto the food or container.  It is also possible for him to cough onto his hand before he prepared the food or packed your stuff. 

Yesterday I already covered the risk of getting infected from touching surfaces so that containers and packing material fall into this category. 

 

But what if we eat or drink contaminated food.  Can we get sick by swallowing food? 

This is what I found out from the web.

1) WebMD.   If the virus were to land on food that you ate, there’s no evidence that swallowing the virus leads to infection. It needs to be transmitted to the respiratory system – into the nose, sinuses or lungs

2)  Centre for Science in the Public Interest:  The public health officials who track the disease haven’t found any examples of someone catching Covid 19 from food. We’re still learning about this virus, but it’s safe to say the main risk people should be focused on is avoiding contact with an infected person, not food.

3) San Francisco Chronicle: There is no evidence that food has been associated with the transmission of the virus, says the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, although more research is still required. “Foodborne exposure to this virus is not known to be a route of transmission,” the CDC says. In general, the virus causes respiratory illness, not a gastrointestinal illness.

I think the conclusion is that we are unlikely to get infected eating or drinking Covid 19.  So let's worry about other modes of transmission.

The lesson for the day – we should worry more about airborne transmission.  

If this is true how come the govt has not made wearing masks mandatory?

But the bigger question I have is if we cannot get Covid 19  from swallowing, how come we can get it by touching our mouth after touching a contaminated surface (assuming we pick up enough virus to be infected)?

I hope someone asks Sanjay Gupta of CNN this mystery question.  

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.