Sweden - How to get a poor grade

I heard the news that the European Union is opening up its sky and allowing flights from countries that have the Covid under control.

This meant that flights from the USA, Brazil and Russia would not be allowed.

I think the basis is looking at the total number of cases in these countries. If so, this is not really an apple to apple comparisons as the population in each country differs.

Do you want to know on an apple to apple basis which is the worse countries in the world in handling Covid 19? 

This is what I set out to do by looking at how countries performed overall based on the following indicators:

1. Cases per 1 million population
2. Deaths per 1 million population 
3. Oxford University Stringency index that I referred to in my 25 June posting.  This looks at several different common govt policy responses on 17 indicators such as school closures and travel restrictions. 
4. Malaysia GCI Index that I referred to in my 13 June posting.  The GCI ranks 184 countries on how well they are coping using a Severity Index and Recovery Index. 

• The Severity Index is designed to exhibit ‘scarring’ characteristics so that countries that have been affected badly can be compared with countries that have been similarly affected, and yet have been able to recover. 
• The GCI Recovery Index evaluates the main recovery parameters (eg tests, recoveries) to give a clear indication of how a country is performing on its path to recovery

I first ranked countries separately based on each of the above indicators and then identified the top 10 worst performers under each criterion.

To avoid being skewed by countries with a small population, I excluded those countries with less than 500,000 people.

I then looked to see whether there are common countries in each of the top 10 worst performers under the 4 criteria.

If a country appeared in all the 4 lists of worst performers, it meant that the population of the country suffered the worst (in terms of cases and mortality) and that the govt mishandled the situation.

What are the results?

• No countries appeared in all the 4 lists.
• Only Sweden appeared in 3 out of the 4 lists
• 4 countries appeared in at least two out of the 4 lists – USA, Singapore, Peru, and Oman

The interesting thing is that Brazil and Russia are not in any of the 4 top 10 worst performers' lists. 

 

Sweden

Are you surprised that Sweden is the worst in the world?

It did not impose any lockdown but it did close schools and universities. Primary schools have remained open, in part to avoid healthcare workers staying home with their children.

It also banned gatherings of over 50 individuals and people from visiting nursing homes.

 

There was also advice to work from home; avoid unnecessary travel within the country; engage in social distancing; and for people above 70 to stay at home, as much as possible

 

It was a sort of voluntary self-control by the citizens.

We should not be surprised by Sweden's standing.  Most of the time, when I see the news about Sweden (by non-Swedish), reporters/commenters tend to put the country's efforts as a failure.

According to news reports,  even the epidemiologist who led Sweden's controversial COVID-19 response, now says that the country should have done more to stop the spread of the virus. 

Details of Analysis

The details of each of the criteria are presented below (where No 1 meant the worst in the world). I also showed Malaysia's position just for comparison. 

 

1) These are the top 10 countries with the worst intensity of Covid cases (in terms of no of cases per million population). 

• The surprise on the list is Singapore

• I think Lexumbourgh made it into the list because of its 613,000 population just passed my 500,000 thresholds.

• Malaysia is no 135 so we are OK

Rank	Country	Total No of cases per m population
1	Qatar	32,311
2	Bahrian	13,867
3	Chile	13,311
4	Kuwait	9,809
5	Peru	8,030
6	Armenia	7,589
7	USA	7,441
8	Singapore	7,306
9	Oman	6,839
10	Lexumburgh	6,616

Source: Worldodometer 24 June 2020

Note: Excluded those countries with population < 500,000 that were listed eg San Marino, Vatican City, Andorra, French Guiana, Mayotte

2) These are the top 10 countries with the worst mortality rate per million population.  Note that US and Peru made it to both the mortality and no of cases lists

• Malaysia is no 140

Rank	Country	Total No of deaths per m population
1	Belgium	839
2	UK	635
3	Spain	606
4	Italy	573
5	Sweden	516
6	France	455
7	USA	376
8	Netherlands	356
9	Ireland	350
10	Peru	260

Source: Worldodometer 24 June 2020

Note: Excluded those countries with population < 500,000 that were listed eg San Marino, Andorra, Sint Maarteen, Isle of Man, Channel Islands

3) Oxford University Stringency score 

I assumed that by 1st April the whole world would have been aware of the seriousness of Covid 19 and have taken measures to control it.  So I looked at the top 10 worst countries as those with the lowest stringency score on this date.

• Sweden is on the list cos it did not have any lockdown

• But the surprise is Singapore and Japan

• Malaysia is no 59.  Remember No 1 is worst and No 160 is the best

Rank	Country	Stringency Score on 1st April 2020	Total number of cases by 1st April 2020
1	Belarus	8.3	163
2	Nicaragua	8.3	5
3	Burundi	13.9	2
4	Tajkistand	19.4	0
5	Chad	27.8	7
6	Taiwan	27.8	329
7	Sweden	38.0	5,320
8	Singapore	38.9	1,000
9	Yemen	38.9	0
10	Japan	40.7	2,384

4) Malaysia GCI

Malaysia ranked 178 ie among the top 10 best.  Remember No 1 here meant the worst.

Rank	Country
1	Hondorus
2	Gabon
3	Bolivia
4	Guinea Bissau
5	Equatorial Guinea
6	Notth Macedonia
7	Cabo Verda
8	Oman
9	Sweden
10	Moldova

Note: Excluded those countries with population < 500,000 that were listed eg Sao Tomei 

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.