Can New Zealand be a "warning lamp" for us?

I started doing research for this post after reading a Guardian article about the 45 countries that have recorded more than 25,000 Covid-19 cases to date.  The article looked at how these countries have relaxed their responses based on the Oxford University Stringency Index and what happened since then.

I was interested to find out among these 45 countries, 

• how many have got the virus really down (ie less than 50 daily cases)

• and of those who have got it really down, how many are experiencing a 2nd wave or spike

Newspapers have their own interpretation of 2nd wave or spike.  I think there is confusion between a 2nd wave and “simmering cases not amounting to a wave”

This has implications for risks. Let me illustrate:

First, let's talk about actual 2nd waves. There are two scenarios:

• The first is like the US where the 2nd wave is actually an upsurge from the first wave.  In my blog on 1 Jul, I have shown that there were 12 countries among the world top 50 in terms of the total number of Covid-19 cases that fall into this category

• The other is for countries like Australia where the virus was brought under control only to have it flare up as can be seen from the chart below.  Look at the 7 days moving average line shown in blue and you can understand why I say they have the making of a 2nd wave. 

Source:  Worldodometer

 

The other scenario is like New Zealand where the cases were supposedly under control but then a few cases re-appeared.  As per the chart below the NZ 7 days moving average number of cases does not show an upsurge like that of Australia.

Source: Worldodometer

If you have the Australian pattern, then there is a possibility of another tough measure.  But if you have the New Zealand pattern, you don’t have to worry about another lockdown.

I would call the Australian pattern as having a 2nd wave or spike while the New Zealand pattern as “simmering cases not amounting to a wave”

So how bad is the situation for these 45 countries?  

I saw 10 countries where the number of cases today has dropped significantly from the peak (looking visually at the respective charts for the daily number of cases). 

To verify, I have gone to Worldodometer to see whether the countries mentioned have the Australian or New Zealand pattern.  The results are as follows:

Those with the Australian pattern 

• Switzerland

Those with the New Zealand pattern

• China

• Germany (still > 200 cases)

• France (still > 500 cases)

• Belgium (still > 100 cases)

• Ireland

• Spain (still > 300 daily

• Italy  (still > 200)

• Netherlands (still > 50 cases)

• Canada (> 300)

I think that was my first shock.  You will notice that although they all looked as if the virus is under control, only 3 out of the 10 had less than 50 daily cases.

We are so used to the reporting of low cases in Malaysia that if we have 50 daily cases we would not have considered it as under control.

But imagine these countries where the cases were so large that today with 200 to 300 daily cases, they are celebrating!

The other point is that those who have got the "virus under control" are more likely to have simmering cases rather than real 2nd waves. 

Malaysia’s pattern looks like New Zealand. 

 

Source: Worldodometer

Conclusions

• I think we are much better than the Western world in terms of getting the virus "under control". Based on this anecdotal evidence, we are unlikely to have the 2nd wave. 

• I think New Zealand can be a “warning lamp” for us ie whatever happened there is likely to happen here so we should monitor their news closely

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.