Our maid are so lucky to be here

The Oxford Dictionary defined a wave as “a large number of people or things suddenly moving or appearing somewhere”

The US is definitely going into another Covid 19 “wave” as the chart of daily infection shows.

 

Source: Worldodometer

The interesting thing is that when I looked at the charts for the top 3 countries in terms of the number of cumulative cases (Source Worldodometer) I found 3 patterns (based on the 7 days moving ave)

• Those like the US with a second wave
• Those like Brazil that is still increasing
• Those like Russia that is declining

Source:  Worldodometer

If you look at the charts you will notice that the number of daily cases in  Brazil never went down while the US is really into another wave.

But surprisingly, the number of daily cases in Russia is trending down. 

So I got curious to see how the top 50 countries (in terms of the cumulative number of Covid 19 cases) were doing in the context of the 3 wave pattern. The results are summarized as follows:

• Including the US, there are 12 countries with a second wave

• Including Brazi, there are 17 countries where the number of cases is still going up ie no sign of any decline yet

• Including Russia, there are 21 countries where the number of cases is declining

I don’t know about you, but I was shocked at the findings as only 42% of the top 50 have a declining number of cases.

Maybe I am biased on what has happened in Malaysia, but after 3 to 4 months into the pandemic, aren’t you shocked that less than half of the world has the virus under control?

The other shocking thing is that about a 1/4 are experiencing the 2nd wave.  So the US is not the only idiot in the world to have wasted their efforts to control the first wave.

I hope that our govt will ban all travel from those countries with the 2nd wave or are still having an increase.  

If this is a good representation of what is happening around the world, almost 2/3 of the nations in the world would be banned from Malaysia.

Finally, I hope the Minister of Transport is doing a similar analysis for all the countries when it decides which countries can MAS fly to.

BTW in the ASEAN context, the Philippines has a second wave.  Bangladesh and Indonesian cases are still going up.

So for those with domestic help and or looking for foreign workers

• Don’t let the maids go back to the home countries. They are more likely to be exposed  to Covid 19 in their home countries than in Malaysia.

• Or if recruiting for new help, I am not sure whether it is wise to get from these countries.

Looking at what is happening in the Philippines and Indonesia, I think many of the maids are very lucky to be in Malaysia. 

The full list is shown below to help those who have foreign workers and/or have business overseas. (The No refer to the countries ranking in terms of the total number of cases by Worldodometer as of 29 Jun)

Those with 2nd wave

Iran – No 10

Turkey – No 13 (just at the start of slight 2nd uptrend)

Saudi Arabia – No 15

UAE – No 31 (just at the start of 2nd wave)

Kuwait – No 33

Ukraine – No 35 (never declined but plateau and 2nd wave started from plateau)

Portugal – No 36 (slow increase after a decline)

Philippines – No 38

Panama – No 40 (never declined but plateau and 2nd wave started from plateau)

Romania – No 45

Israel – No 50

Those with the number of daily cases still increasing

India – No 4

Mexico – No 11

Bangladesh – No 17

South Africa – No 18

Columbia – No 21

Argentina – No 27

Ecuador – No 28 (very slow increase) 

Indonesia – No 29

Iraq – No 32

Oman – No 37

Poland – No 39 (at plateau) 

Bolivia – No 42

Dominican Republic – No 43

Bahrain – No 46

Armenia – No 48

Nigeria – No 49

Those with a decreasing number of daily cases. 

UK – No 5

Spain – No 6

Peru – No 7

Chile – No 8

Italy – No 9

Pakistan – No 12

Germany – No 14

France – No 16

Canada – No 19

Qatar – No 20

China – No 22

Egypt – No 23 (just turning the corner to decline)

Sweden – No 24

Belarus – No 25

Belgium – No 26

Netherlands – No 30

Singapore – No 34

Switzerland – No 41

Afghanistan – No 44

Ireland – No 47

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.