There is a new meaning to crowd puller

The governors of California and Texas have said that they regretted opening the bars recently implying that bars have led to the increase in cases. 

I think that they are missing the picture.

The current upswing in the US is not caused by one particular type of activity, but rather by large groups of people affecting larger groups of people.  Otherwise, there would not be this double-digit growth in cases

Just look at the YouGov survey about avoiding crowded public places in the US compared to Malaysia and Singapore. 

Source: YouGov

The survey shows that Malaysians and Singaporeans are less likely to go to crowded places. 

If you accept the logic that exponential growth occurs when a crowd of infected people spread to a bigger crowd (what epidemiologists called R0 > 1), then there is no such thing as the wisdom of the crowd.

Rather when crowd forms, we have a new meaning of crowd-puller – the crowd pulls up the infection numbers. 

But to come back to pubs, bars and nightclubs. 

I am not suggesting these are not risky places when it comes to Covid-19.   In fact, there have been many stories about the Covid-19 than can be traced to bars/nightclubs

• In mid-May, after the new case numbers dwindled to just a few a day in South Korea, dozens of new cases have been confirmed nearly all of them linked to nightclubs in the Itaewon district of Seoul.

• In Mac, a Japanese man who was asymptomatic decided to visit two bars in the small coastal city after telling a family member: “I am going to spread the virus.”

• In Singapore, Hero’s bar in the Boat Quay area has been identified as a cluster, with five confirmed coronavirus cases linked to it

• In Malaysia, we have one large cluster caused by lawyers of the bar.  Ok, I am being facetious.

Remember the Covid-19 equation

Infection = Exposure X Time

Well in bars, pubs and nightclubs, you have both exposure and time.  They are generally enclosed and probably air-cond places and you can imagine people taking off masks (if they were wearing one, to begin with) to drink.

Then there is the close conversation as this is about the only way you can talk.  And think of the time spent there.

So it is not surprising that many Western countries target the bars.  

Even in Malaysia, our bars are still not allowed to operate.  I think our authorities are a bit confused.  

They say that under the RMCO, activities that are prohibited are activities in pubs and nightclubs, except for restaurant business in pubs and nightclubs.

Don’t they realize that if you follow the logic of the Covid-19 equation, it makes no sense?

Oh well, at least they did not confuse bar with barbers.

It is interesting to note that it is not just the govt who are worried about pubs and nightclubs.  It seems the public in some countries is worried as well. 

• Canada, Angus Reid survey in early June.   52 % of the people questioned said they intend to avoid restaurants in the coming months to protect their own health.

• UK May, British Foodservice Sentiment Study by The NPD Group.  Almost six out of 10 respondents said restaurants and bars are the riskiest places to be infected

• Australia,10 May survey by Vox Pop Labs in collaboration with the ABC showed that less than half of the people surveyed would be comfortable going to a bar or restaurant

So is it safe to go to pubs and restaurants in Malaysia?

For starters, I have not seen any clusters involving such places.  OK maybe they have been closed

But for Covid-19 to spread 2 conditions must apply

• Some of the staff are asymptomatic
• Some of the customers are symptomatic

The Covid-19 equation only applies if there are such sources

  

So if our current cases are imported ones, foreign workers in construction sites/chicken factories and Tahfiz clusters, I am pretty confident that our pubs and non-halal restaurants are unlikely to have people from such clusters meaning that the risks of infection from going to pubs and non-halal restaurants are very low. 

 

I am just following the science.  Or unless you think that my logic is faulty. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Be fearless to get more to Stay Safe, Share this Blog

PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.