To see how bad it is, look at the 3 maps showing the number of cases worldwide at the end of Dec 2019, Mac 2020 and June 2020.
Chart 1: Covid-19 status: end Dec 2019 (Source: Our World in Data)
Chart 3: World Covid-19 status end Jun 2020. (Source: Our World in Data)
Chart 4: Countries that are not flattening the curve. (Source Our World in Data)
One way to get a sense of the first scenario is to look at the cumulative curves for all the countries and pick out those with > 100,000 cum cases who are still not able to flatten the curve. This means that the number of cases in these countries will still go up.
From Chart 4 above that shows how the countries are flattening the curve, you can see that there are 6 countries with > 100,000 cum cases and where the number of cases appears to be still growing ie the curve is not flattening.
We all know that countries with dark blue colour are lost cause.
But what about places with light yellow colour? Just because there are currently few cases does not automatically mean that it is good. It is possible that the virus is just starting to hit badly and if true, it is bad.
There are 6 countries in the world where the rate of infection is such that it will take less than 10 days to double the number of cases. As can be seen half of them are African nations.
Chart 1: Covid-19 status: end Dec 2019 (Source: Our World in Data)
The white colour denotes a few cases while the dark red denotes lots of cases.
Chart 2: World Covid-19 status end Mac 2020. (Source: Our World in Data)
Chart 2: World Covid-19 status end Mac 2020. (Source: Our World in Data)
You can see how the world has gone from one pale pink place in Dec 2019 to almost red all over the world over a 6 months period.
During the first 3 months, it seems to have skipped Africa, but today even Africa has not been spared. The only exception seems to be Greenland near the north pole and Papua New Guinea.
Chart 3: World Covid-19 status end Jun 2020. (Source: Our World in Data)
The implication is that unless we quarantine ourselves from the rest of the world, the only way to be safe is when each nation of the world learn how to control the spread within its own territory.
The sad thing is that not all countries are doing a good job in controlling the spread.
Which are the worst countries and still getting worst?
There are two ways to look at this
- the number of top countries (in terms of total Covid-19 cases) that are getting more cases
- others (not in top 100 countries in terms of the number of Covid-19 cases) but getting worst in that the time to double the total number of cases is under 10 days
Chart 4: Countries that are not flattening the curve. (Source Our World in Data)
One way to get a sense of the first scenario is to look at the cumulative curves for all the countries and pick out those with > 100,000 cum cases who are still not able to flatten the curve. This means that the number of cases in these countries will still go up.
From Chart 4 above that shows how the countries are flattening the curve, you can see that there are 6 countries with > 100,000 cum cases and where the number of cases appears to be still growing ie the curve is not flattening.
These are
- Brazil
- US
- India
- Pakistan
- Mexico
- South Africa
I am not surprised that the US and Brazil are on this list. What is surprising is that Russia is not among them ie Russia is actually slowing down the virus.
As to the second scenario, Chart 5 below shows the weekly number of cases around the world with the yellow being below 500 cases per week and dark blue with more than 100,000 cases per week.
You can see straight away that there are a couple of areas where the number of cases is very high. At the same time, you can see the places with a fewer number of cases.
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| Chart 5: Weekly Covid-19 cases. (Source: OurWorld in Data) |
You are not surprised to note that the US, Brazil and India are the ones with dark blue colour. BTW the other dark blue spot is Alaska in the top left-hand corner
We all know that countries with dark blue colour are lost cause.
But what about places with light yellow colour? Just because there are currently few cases does not automatically mean that it is good. It is possible that the virus is just starting to hit badly and if true, it is bad.
In such cases, I looked for those with the highest rate of infection in terms of how fast it takes to double the number of cases.
There are 6 countries in the world where the rate of infection is such that it will take less than 10 days to double the number of cases. As can be seen half of them are African nations.
- Kazakhstan
- Botswana
- Namibia
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Palestine
- Lesotho
You will be surprised to know that for the US, it currently will take about 60 days to double the number of cases. Of course, the US has 3 million cases currently so in theory by Sep it will reach 6 million. It may be faster if they continue to fight wearing masks and other social distancing measures.
Conclusion: Most of the world is not really a place safe in terms of Covid-19 infection. There is no place like home.
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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis. The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.
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