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You and I know that the
one positive case must have gotten infected a
week or two ago. So he would have time
to infect others in the prison compound. Ya, the cluster is forming.
How prevalent is this infection among prisoners?
- Singapore had 4 cases in April and May all unlinked. This is fantastic considering that Singapore had more than 32,000 foreign workers living in dorms affected
- I saw an article saying that 80% of inmates in US prisons tested positive. But then there are many cases among the general public in the US so this could be reflective of what is happening to the population
- The prisons in England and Wales were reported to have nearly 1,000 cases in mid-May. But then the UK also had lots of cases among the general public
I think Malaysia's situation is due to what I call “spontaneous” COVID 19 cases – I said this is cos in those places where no one expects it, we suddenly get cases.
- A good example is the detention cluster where I think MOH is still trying to figure out how the infection started,
- Yesterday we had the Cheras apartment cases
- We have the same issue with the prisons. On 12 May, the Prison Dept had said that there were no reported cases among the 72,000 inmates in all its prisons. They had put in stringent measures to ensure that it is Covid 19 free. Yet a new case sprouted up.
Of course our Defense
Minister said that there is no need to test all the prisons as the infection
was only in Sungai Buloh. He is merely looking at it from the angle that the cases in Sungai Buloh prison could not spread to other prisons. He does not
believe in this “spontaneous” theory.
Well, for the detention cluster, it started with Bukit Jalil centre. Then about a week later, we also had cases in 2 other detention centres.
Ya! "Spontaneous" appearance of new cases.
You all may laugh but
my point is that we have been in MCO for so long that all those who were
infected (irrespective of whether they were hospitalized) would have recovered. So in theory with the MCO there should not be
any more infected people
Yet we have cases all
over the country. So until we have an
explanation, there will be new cases “spontaneously" sprouting in the
country. Our experience over the past
few weeks is that it can even happen in green zones.
This will put an end to
any speculation that we have brought the virus under control.
I see that MOH is
making the argument that the number of cases among Malaysians is low and all
the ones reported recently were either due to returnees or to foreign workers.
I think we should not
get complacent about this low Malaysian count.
The country is no better off if that while we have zero Malaysian cases every day, there are foreign workers cases.
If there is doubt just
look across the causeway where the case count among the locals in Singapore is
very low. The majority are from the
foreign workers who have even been “contained in their dorms”
Yet Singapore is still
having its lockdown – ok they started P1 opening.
My point is we
should be looking at total cases and not be happy cos the ones among the locals
are low. Apart from the risk of
infecting the locals, how can we have the economy running if one part of the workforce is sick?
Secondly, there are also treatment costs.
So two important takeaways
- It is the total cases that really matter. Do not be misled by the low numbers among the locals
- As long as we don’t understand this “spontaneous” of cases, we cannot lift the CMCO
Disclaimer:
I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist or staff in the
Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical
analysis. The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in
the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions
expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public
sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be
relied on as such.
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