Don't change the Covid 19 goal post by talking of only the local cases

We had 93 cases yesterday so that we ended Wk 11 of the MCO with 351 cases for the week.

So what if this is lower than the 610 cases for the week before.

We were given the impression that the 610 cases were due to the one-off detention cluster and we should see lower numbers very soon.

False hope.

If you look at the chart showing the number of weekly cases you can see that the 310 cases are actually higher than the number of cases for Week 9 (14 – 20 May) and the same number as for Week 8 (7 – 13 May). See the part circled in red in the chart. 

I first started my analysis of the COVID 19 cases in Malaysia sometime in March as I wanted to get a sense of what was happening to the virus trajectory.

So I actually started with some standard Excel curve fitting programme to try to plot the path of the virus based on the daily data reported by MOH.

It was the early days of COVID 19 in the country so there was not much data – those available were mainly the daily number of cases. In those days, MOH had yet to report cluster-info.

Then as time went by, with more data I “improved” my curve fitting model. I even used weekly cases (so that we have less “noise”). As you can see a bell shape pattern appeared over time as shown by the blue line in the chart. 

If I was still in school, I would have gotten an A for the curve fitting model. 

But then came May, when the number of weekly cases sort of yo-yo. Refer to the part circled in red. 

So now the model for the virus trajectory doesn't reflect what is happening anymore. 

I have sort of resigned to the idea that we will see a long term up and down pattern that I initially talked about in a tongue-in-cheek manner in my Mon 1 June posting. Now it looks like it will be a reality as

• Firstly we will continue to have ‘spontaneous new clusters” that I mentioned yesterday

• Secondly, we will have next-generation cases from the old cluster – we have now the Pedas and the Detention clusters as proof

• As we further relax the CMCO, there will be more cases not only among the foreign workers but also among Malaysians.

Quite depressing. 

Do you realize that with 7,970 cases we are almost on par with Morocco with 7,910 cases?
But when you look at the pattern of daily cases in both countries, you can see that the Morocco virus pattern looks more like a Bell curve. Malaysia looks as if there is a 2nd wave.



Of course, each country is unique but I will say that for someone who has been looking at the curves for some time, I am not convinced that it will go down to 10 cases (on an overall basis) any time soon.

I think MOH is trying to change the goal post by talking about the number of cases among Malaysians is getting close to zero.

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.