Singapore is opening its “Circuit Breaker” today and 75 % of the economy is expected to open. What may look strange is that it is doing so when currently it has about 500 daily new cases which are only about half of what it had at the height of the infection in mid-April.
In contrast, Malaysia with about 7,800 cases to date and about an average of 50 daily new cases is still cautious about ending the MCO.
Remember Malaysia went into MCO when we had about 100 daily new cases (when CMCO was announced it was about 60 odd cases).
Both countries have an issue with infection among the foreign worker
About 93 % of the cases in Singapore are migrant workers and I suspect this ratio is “steady” for the daily cases
In the case of Malaysia, although on an overall basis the foreign workers account for about ¼ of all the COVID cases, MOH has said that recently about 80% of the cases are foreigners.
For those who have forgotten, I had earlier said that the main difference between Singapore and Malaysia was that we got the first spike in the foreign workers during our MCO and hence were able to contain it better. But Singapore went into lockdown after the first spike from the foreign workers.
The impact is vastly different as can be seen from the table.
|
|
Singapore |
Malaysia |
||||
|
|
Cases |
Population |
Prevalence |
Cases |
Population |
Prevalence |
|
Foreigners |
32,104 |
0.3 m |
9.94 % |
1,948 (b) |
2 – 4 m |
0.06 % (d) |
|
Locals |
1,682 (a) |
5.4 m |
0.03 % |
5,342 |
32 m |
0.02 % |
|
Imported |
580 |
|
|
472 (c) |
|
|
|
Total |
34,366 |
|
|
7,762 |
|
|
COVID profile as at 30 May 2020
a) include work permit and non-dorm foreign workers eg maids. Link cases ie cluster = 1077
b) 35,028 nationwide screened
c) 45,383 quarantined with 35,615 completed quarantine
d) Based on the midpoint of 3 m
Singapore has about 17 times foreign workers cases c/w Malaysia – you would think that the locals in Singapore are 17 times riskier than Malaysians when talking about getting infected by a foreign worker
But you cannot look at statistics like that.
If fact Malaysian are more at risk
We should not look at sheer numbers when it comes to the likelihood of infection. The source is important
In Singapore, the infections (or at least the past few weeks) are from migrant workers who are quarantined or kept apart from the general public. So sad to say, the infection is within this “contained crowd”
Most Singapore foreign workers cases come from those staying in dormitories and on 21 April the Singapore govt had told all those staying there to stop work and not move in or out of the dorm until 4 May. This was later extended to 1 June.
So the Singapore foreign workers case is like our case of the foreign workers in our detention centres – ie they get sick among themselves. OK I know this is badly put but this is the reality
So with all the potential cases isolated, the locals in Singapore have a very low risk of getting infected by foreign workers.
But this is not the case in Malaysia with the CMCO, where the foreign workers can go anywhere.
Secondly, our foreign workers' cases come from all over the place
- Maran
- Pedas
- Cheras
- Setia Alam.
Thirdly for Malaysia, with 10 times more foreign workers, the numbers are too big to be confined to some dormitories.
So, free to roam, dispersed all over the country, too large to be “contained”
What it means is that even though the number of foreign workers who are infected is 1/17 the number in Singapore, Malaysians have a greater chance to be in contact with the infected foreign workers.
Too bad for Malaysians.
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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis. The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.
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