We had 16 cases yesterday, the lowest for a long time. But there is some disconnect between the number of daily cases and the number of daily tests reported. In fact, yesterday was not the only day where we reported zero tests as per below. I won't get excited about the low number of daily cases until we have a few more days of it.
Date No of daily cases No of daily tests (a)
8 May 68 14,083
9 May 54 0
10 May 67 11,835
11 May 70 14,784
12 May 16 0
a) Source: Worldodometer
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For those into the stock market, I came across a presentation by Whitney Tilson who showed that the Chinese stock market reached the bottom when the virus in China peaked. If you take the view that the stock market is sentiment-driven, then Covid 19 will have a big role in the sentiments of any country.
I wanted to see whether there were the same phenomena for Bursa and thus charted the movement of the KLCI vs several Malaysian Covid 19 metrics as shown below. I was looking for a forward-looking
indicator that could tell in real-time that the KLCI has reached the bottom.
indicator that could tell in real-time that the KLCI has reached the bottom.
Note: The vertical red line shows the start of MCO. The scale of the KLCI is on the right while the scale on the left is the respective indicator values
If you look at the bottom left corner chart, it would appear that the % change in infections peaked when KLCI reached the bottom. If this is reflective of other markets, then we have a forward-looking indicator for some bottom fishing plan.
As per this chart, it would appear that Bursa reached bottom sometime in March and it is too late for those who want to make some quick bucks. However, if you believe that it is not the end of the story for the virus i.e. there is a possibility of another infection wave in Malaysia, then you have one indicator that could provide a guide on how Bursa will react.
Of course, I could be data mining and you could argue that the KLCI reached the bottom when we went into MCO. Then instead of charting, just wait for the next MCO to enter into the market!!
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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker,
pharmacist or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a
strong
interest in
numerical analysis. The content is an attempt
to understand what is happening in the battle against Covid 19 from a
data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information
extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its
completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.
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