The chart below shows the weekly number of cases for Malaysia and you will notice the “steady” cases for the past 3 weeks. I think it will represent the new normal for many weeks to come.
During the MCO we had a large number of cases from returnees and local clusters. Today the returnees are being replaced by foreign workers.
But the significant difference is that previously the news on the foreign workers was related to EMCO ie the infection was transmitted within their residential areas. Currently, the news is about infections in their workplaces.
- The Pedas factory in Negri has 81 foreigners and 7 locals.
- We have the Cheras mall with 1 local and 9 foreigners
- I think it is not the end of the story for the Wholesale market with 189 cases currently
- There is the Pavilion construction cluster with 20 odd foreign workers
- OP CES mentioned about the foreign construction workers in his township
During the MCO there is less worry about locals being infected by the foreign workers. Now with many back working, there is a good chance of them infecting their Malaysian co-workers and/or the Malaysian customers. New normal = new source of risk.
I hate to make the analogy with Singapore, but today about 90% of the cases in Singapore are due to the foreign workers. Imagine the economy being shut down due to foreign workers. President Trump will have a fit. The worst part is that Singapore still has some time to go if it wants to test all of them as I think only about 25% of the foreign workers have been tested so far.
Malaysia will also be facing foreign workers' risk as we all go back to work. Given our limited testing capacity, the best option is
- Random tests to identify potential clusters, maybe with a combination of testing in residential areas and in companies with large numbers of foreign workers. NOT HAPPENING
- Have the EMCO whenever a cluster is detected so that in one swoop we can gather all the contacts/PUI for testing and/or quarantine. The lessons from the Sri Petaling event is that if we use the appeal method to trace contacts, we will have another exponential growth.
- Make wearing a mask mandatory. NOT HAPPENING
Unfortunately, I think only the 2nd point is being adopted. The good news on testing was that the cluster in CES township was found when the foreign workers were sent to a private clinic for testing. If all employers do some random testing on their own, they could help identify clusters before it gets into exponential growth. As for wearing masks, I am confused about the govt position.
I know why wearing masks in public places has not been made mandatory – because if all wear masks you cannot differentiate between the robbers and the police.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Be fearless to get more to Stay Safe, Share this Blog
PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker,
pharmacist or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a
strong
interest in
numerical analysis. The content is an attempt
to understand what is happening in the battle against Covid 19 from a
data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information
extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its
completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.
No comments:
Post a Comment