The Numbers Don't Point Towards A 3rd wave

We just ended the 2^nd week of CMCO with the 2^nd week having about 1/3 fewer cases than the 1^st week.   I would say that the signs are good that we are unlikely to have a 3^rd wave with the relaxation under the CMCO.   

Date                        Total cases for the week

4 – 10 May                      358

11 – 17 May                    238

The only negative news is that we do not have an exponential decline (theoretically an exponential growth will also lead to an exponential decline) and it looks as if we will continue to have daily new cases for some time. The main worry is still about asymptomatic cases.  

I am not sure how many saw the letter by Arvinder Singh posted in Malaysiakini yesterday pointing out that the 85% asymptomatic cases among the Tahfiz students imply thousands of such cases walking about. 

I of course don’t agree with his analysis as per what I posted yesterday and I think the number of cases for the past 2 weeks supports my position.  There are 2 shortcomings in his analysis 

• He did not factor in the recovery among the asymptomatic cases.  His numbers only make sense if you assume that asymptomatic cases will continue to be contagious forever.

• He overlooked that with the MOH protocol of hospitalizing and/or quarantining all cases and contacts respectively, some of the asymptomatic cases will eventually be identified and isolated from the rest of the community. 

Having said that, as long as there is no vaccine, we must reduce the chances of transmission by the asymptomatic cases by continuing with the ban on public gathering, having the social distancing and public hygiene measures, making wearing masks mandatory, improving contact tracing capabilities and having the EMCO.   

Now that we have the 3^rd wave out of the way, If you want to know what another wave looks like, just look at Iran which supposedly started to relax its measures in the second half of April.  

We just have to adapt to the new normal

• The mandatory quarantine for incoming travelers will continue – can you imagine visiting Singapore for a few days.  First, you have to be quarantined for 2 weeks going in.  Then when coming back you again have to be quarantined 2 weeks in Malaysia. 

• Those who can will be encouraged to work from home.   All that a lazy staff has to do is to say that he/she has come into contact with a Covid 19 case and I am sure he/she will be told not to come into the office. 

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against Covid 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.