Everyday MOH provides an update on the Covid 19 statistics (e.g. cases, deaths, under treatment, etc) <http://covid-19.moh.gov.my/terkini> and occasionally provides further details (groups tested, potential cluster size, etc). Although I have been following the daily briefing in order to update my database, I think that they are of limited use to the general public from the risk mitigation perspective.
I guess there are two perspectives of the information – those that help MOH do its public health job (e.g. contact tracing and isolating cases) and those that help the public avoid risks. I think most of the information provided is more useful to MOH than to the general public as
- Cases are reported by State – these are too large an area to inform the public as to which places to avoid.
- There are statistics on the number of daily cases, those under treatment, etc – unless I am a healthcare worker, I am not sure how to use these for risk mitigation.
- Cases are reported in bits and pieces by target groups - I am not sure whether this is a fault of MOH or the media but I don’t think the presentation has helped the general public in avoiding the asymptomatic.
As a member of the general public, I am more concerned about the risks of infection and that is why I have been re-casting and analyzing all the MOH information into a format that can inform me of where and the extent of the risk of being infected as well as when to do the next panic buying.
Incidentally, I am very proud that on the weekend just before 18 Mac, my family went out for a good meal on the basis that it might be a long time before we could have one. Furthermore, I did all my panic buying on the Sunday morning before the PM's announcement on the MCO. OK, I might have been lucky but I hope my daily analysis can provide further guidance in the future!!
What do I want to see?
- Cases at a more granular level eg residential and business locations
- Projections of asymptomatic cases at each of the residential and business locations
- Alternatively, zoning at the granular level based on actual and projections so that we know that if it a green zone, we don’t have to worry.
That is why I am upset when I see anomalies and gaps in the information provided. My current concern is the testing figures.
President Trump said that testing is overrated and with more testing, you will find more cases. I think OP WTC has posted some comments about how ridiculous his statement is. But Malaysia is even more unique in that we can have cases reported without any testing as per below.
May 2020
|
No of daily cases
|
No of daily tests as per
Worldodometer
|
11
|
70
|
14,784
|
12
|
16
|
0
|
13
|
37
|
0
|
14
|
40
|
0
|
15
|
36
|
152,585
|
16
|
17
|
9,830
|
17
|
22
|
9,127
|
18
|
47
|
0
|
19
|
37
|
18,994
|
Note: Worldodometer reports the cumulative numbers every day so the daily figures are derived figures
OK, I may be facetious, but it does raise some questions why for the past 2 weeks there have been days with zero testing reported when we did not have this issue before. I am assuming that Worldodometer picked up the testing figures from MOH - if so what is happening in MOH?
Considering that almost all the information on Covid 19 in the country comes from MOH, we should be worried about changes in reporting format by MOH. I have previously posted that I switched my source of testing info from MOH to Worldodometer in early April when MOH stopped providing such statistics on its webpage. This switch has not helped in getting timely information.
The only positive news is that the number of daily tests seems to have gone up c/w with the 3,800 average daily tests in the middle of last month.
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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker,
pharmacist or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a
strong
interest in
numerical analysis. The content is an attempt
to understand what is happening in the battle against Covid 19 from a
data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information
extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its
completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.
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