Vaccinate - the current MCO, CMCO, RMCO are not effective.

I have previously divided the country into 3 regions for tracking Covid-19:

• Sabah & Kedah.  These were the states that first had the rise in Covid-19 in Oct 2020

• Central - Selangor, KL, and Putrajaya.  These were the second region to experience the Oct 2020 wave

• Others - the rest of the country

If you look at the trajectory of the virus for these 3 regions you will notice that

• It has come down significantly in Sabah & Kedah

• It appears to be coming down in the Central zone

• But the trend for the cases in the Others is not so clear cut. I hope it is coming down. Given the ban on interstate travel, I suspect that the authorities are not sure that the cases are coming down in the Others region. 

I know that the restrictions in many places in the country have eased.  But with 4 digits daily infections nationwide, there is nothing to shout about.  It is still bad and I think that the authorities are easing the restrictions because of economic pressures.

When you look at the current progress relative to what was achieved in Mac/Apr of 2020, the conclusion is that this time the MCO, CMCO, RMCO, etc are not as effective as previously.  

• In Mac 2020, it took about 3 to 4 months to get down to single digits daily infection nationwide

• We have passed the 4 months since the start of the Oct 2020 wave and we are nowhere near single digits daily cases nationwide.

This is where the vaccination comes in.  

Will there be great benefits for getting all Malaysians vaccinated?

If vaccination does not prevent you from catching Covid-19 but only prevents death or hospitalization when you catch it, is there any need to rush the vaccination in Malaysia? 

I can imagine why the US is having to expedite the vaccination as they have high death rates

• The US has 1,593 deaths per million population

• Malaysia has 35 deaths per million population

OK the US has a higher infection rate with 88,386 cases per million population c/w with Malaysia of 9,317 cases per million population.  We can debate why the US infection is 10 times higher than Malaysia or why the death rate is 46 times higher than Malaysia.  It cannot be the test rates as Malaysia has relatively better testing performance compared to the US.

• US has 8.1 % positivity rates

• Malaysia has 4.8 % positivity rates

This is one mystery for some Ph.D. students to solve. 

From what I can gather, while you can still get infected after vaccination, the viral load is supposed to reduce.  In other words, you become less infectious.  

The advice is that you still have to wear masks and social distance to prevent the spread of the virus, but the lower viral load means a lower risk of spreading it even without the masks or social distancing. 

So for the US where wearing masks and social distancing is a challenge getting all vaccinated will help the spread of the disease apart from reducing the mortality and hospitalization rates.

But for Malaysians where there is supposed to be good compliance for masks and social distancing, I would have argued that the benefits of vaccination may not be so great.

However, the mystery for Malaysia is that we are still having the virus spreading despite the mask-wearing, social distancing, and all the SOP compliance.  I think that because of this mystery, the authorities have figured that vaccination is the way to go. 

Ya. Let us not spend time figuring out why we still have high cases when there is a simpler vaccination route. 

If everyone is vaccinated, there is no need to curb activities because when people get Covid-19, it will be like catching a cold - you fall sick, maybe spread to those you come into contact with, but for most (?) people it will not be a serious illness ie can still go about doing most things.

My view is that we need to rush the vaccination because the current measures have not been effective. If we have to rely on the measures to open up the economy it will take a longer time. So vaccination will speed the opening of the economy.

But I think the priority for vaccination should be different from the US

• yes, get all front liners vaccinated first

• senior citizen should not be the priority since we have lower mortality rates

• rather get the foreign workers and all those with problems on social distancing when at home to be vaccinated first

Stay Safe

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.