We have just completed the first week of the new MCO in Malaysia and we are having a record number of Covid-19 cases as can be seen from the chart below.
We should not be surprised by this as these were from people infected a week or two before the start of the MCO. Expect the number of cases in the coming week to be high as well.
The impact of the MCO will be seen in the first week of Feb.
Looking at the chart, you can see that the number of cases for Sabah & Kedah is also trending up. I find this the most strange. You would have thought that with them experiencing serious numbers in Oct/Nov, the "controls" in place would have kept the numbers low.
If nothing else, I would conclude that the CMCO are not really effective ways to control the spread.
How long will the MCO last?
The second point I want to make is that the last time, it took about 5 weeks after the MCO before we saw a significant reduction in the number of weekly cases. This is illustrated in the chart below.
There is nothing to suggest that history won't repeat itself. In fact, I would argue that the MCO this time is less stringent than the Mac/Apr one.
Accordingly, do not surprised that the current MCO will have to be extended to at least mid-Feb 2021. Yes, MCO during the Chinese New Year.
Increased testing
Malaysia is indeed a country of miracles. In the Mac/Apr phase, there was concern about the number of beds to treat the Covid-19 cases when the highest number of people under treatment reached about 2,500.
On 20 Jan 2021, we had 41,087 under treatment. OK, the govt is not getting the private hospitals to help and people with "mild" symptoms are asked to quarantine at home.
But these should distract the picture that we somehow created additional 30,000 beds.
The other miracle I wanted to point out can be seen in the chart below that shows the number of daily tests carried out. As you can see, it has almost doubled over the past month.
I have not seen any news about this new testing capacity. I suspect it could include the rapid testing kits.
Stay safe
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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis. The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.
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