Do you know how long it takes to control Covid-19?

We hear of countries like the US, Australia and Isreal having a second wave.  

If nothing else this is proof that it is very difficult to bring the virus under control.

Do you know that of the top 50 countries in the world in terms of the total number of cases

• Only 7 countries have brought it to a stage where the number of daily cases is less than 5 % of the peak cases (I used the 7 days moving average to determine the peak numbers and the 5 % numbers)

• 17 other countries who have a declining number of cases have not even reached the stage where the number of cases is less than 5 % of the peak cases

• 26 of the balance countries are still having an increasing number of cases irrespective of whether it is a 2nd wave or still on the first wave.

Base on the above, Malaysia should be proud to have brought it down to a stage where it is below 5 % of the peak number of infection. 

To see how difficult it is to control it, I looked at the time it took these 7 countries to get it under control. 

 

The time it took to control the virus

I used that starting time as when the country first reported 50 total number of cases (based on 7 days moving ave) and then I looked at when they got it down to 5 % of the peak number of cases (both based on the 7 days moving ave)

Well, it took an average of 82 days.  It ranged from 61 days for China to 117 days for Italy.

So I would say that on average expect at least a 3-months period. 

In comparison, it took Malaysia 105 days. The record is New Zealand with 33 days.  

The table below shows the performance of these countries. 

Rank (1)	Country	Dates from 50 cum cases to down to 5 % of the peak cases	Duration (days)
7	Spain	6 Mac  – 4 Jun	107
13	Italy	25 Feb – 21 Jun	117
16	Germany	5 Mac -  10 Jun	97
23	China        (2)	1 Jan -  2 Mac	61
30	Belgium	12 Mac – 21 Jun	101
37	Netherlands	10 Mac – 9 Jul	121
46	Switzerland	9 Mac – 11 May	63
76	Malaysia	15 Mac – 28 Jun	105
123	New Zealand	26 Mac – 28 April	33

Note 

1) Rank based on Worldodometer as at 10 Jul

2) For China, I assumed that it started to reach 50 cases on 1 Jan as there was no early information about when the virus first started.  Worldodometer first reporting date for China was around 3rd week of Jan. 

Skewed distribution

If you look at the charts below that showed the daily number of cases for those countries that have controlled the virus to 5 % of the peak (leaving out China), you can see visually that the distribution is skewed towards the right.

Source: Worldodometer

The mean is it took a longer time to bring it down from the peak c/w the time from the start of the infection (at 50 cum cases) to build up to the peak. 

I would estimate that it took twice as long to come down from the peak c/w getting to the peak.

So if you assume that it takes an average of 3 months to bring the virus under control starting from when a country has got 50 cum cases, it will take about a month to reach the peak and then another 2 months to bring it down to the 5% level.

So what does this mean for countries like the US which has yet to reach its new peak?

• We know that it will take about 2 weeks for any measure to take effect

• The US till today has not taken any meaningful measure that will flatten the curve

• Assume that it will take till the end of Jul before the virus finally forces the country to go into some lockdown mode.  (Given the world's experience, I am not sure whether the virus can be controlled without any lockdown)

• Based on this, it will be till mid-Aug before the US reaches the new peak

• Can you imagine that the US had its 50th cases in early March meaning it would have taken them 5 months to reach this “new peak”

• Assuming the 1:2 ratio, it will take them another 10 months to get it to the 5 % level ie effectively the middle of next year. 

Of course, this is a simplistic pattern comparison method.  I do hope that there is something else that can cut short the path down from the peak. 

I don’t see how the US economy can recover by the end of the year given the above scenario. 

If it really is going to take the US to get the virus under control around the middle of next year, I think Malaysia may be in trouble.

In 2018, Malaysia’s exports to the US are equivalent to 5 % of Malaysia’s GDP.   As a comparison, Malaysia’s exports to China are equivalent to 30% of Malaysia's 2018 GDP.

Malaysia imports from the US are several times larger than exports.  Possibly we could compensate for the imports by buying from other countries.  But I am not sure whether we could substitute the US with other countries for the exports.

Looking at this, it is good that China has recovered.  But I am not sure what this means for our economy as I don't know how much of Malaysia’s exports to China are used as inputs into its exports to the US.  I don’t think it is zero

So the impact on Malaysia is not just direct exports.

What this all means is that I don’t think our economy is going to be back to pre-Covid-19 level by the end of this year.

Conclusion - tough times till the end of the year.

For those interested, I tabulate below the list of those who have yet to get the virus to be under 5 % of the peak. 

List of those still struggling with the virus

Those excluded who failed to meet the 5 % threshold

Rank	Country	Still increasing	Declining but not 5 % level yet
1	USA	Y
2	Brazil	Y
3	India	Y
4	Russia		Y
5	Peru		Y
6	Chile		Y
8	Mexico	Y
9	UK		Y
10	Iran	Y
11	South Africa	Y
12	Pakistan		Y
14	Saudi Arabia	Y
15	Turkey	Y
17	Bangladesh	Y
18	France		Y
19	Columbia	Y
20	Canada		Y
21	Qatar		Y
22	Argentina	Y
24	Egypt		Y
25	Sweden		Y
26	Iraq	Y
27	Indonesia	Y
28	Ecuador		Y
29	Belarus		Y
31	Kazakhstan	Y
32	UAE	Y
33	Oman	Y
34	Kuwait	Y
35	Philippines	Y
36	Ukraine	Y
38	Singapore		Y
39	Portugal	Y
40	Bolivia	Y
41	Panama	Y
42	Dominican Rep	Y
43	Poland		Y
44	Israel (2nd wave)	Y
45	Afghanistan		Y
47	Bahrain	Y
48	Armenia		Y
49	Romania	Y
50	Nigeria		Y

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia.

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist, or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against COVID 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.