Many Covid 19 cases one day, then very few the next day - welcome to the New Normal

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We had 10 cases yesterday with the media headlining this as the lowest since Mac 12. Compare this with the 187 cases two days ago or the 172 cases three days ago.  If you accept that Covid 19 will have its black swan events, low daily cases are not something to shout about. 

We are not the only one with a sudden jump in cases as South Korea yesterday reported its biggest daily increase in 55 days with 79 new infections. South Korean health officials have warned that with the resurgence it is getting harder to track the cases.

I think we are better off than South Korea in that we can trace the source of the jump.  More importantly, the jump has not invalidated the reason for the opening of the economy. 

For those of you who have forgotten, the rationale cited by PM for relaxing the MCO was because we have met the 6 WHO guidelines for opening. I re-checked these WHO guidelines (refer to 5 May posting Boo to those saying we are opening up too early ) as per below to see whether we can still meet it despite the 335 cases from the detainee cluster.  Judge for yourself. 

• transmission under control - it does not mean zero cases but rather that it is manageable.
• healthcare system able to detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact - I think we have achieved this although I question the speed.
• hotspots risks are minimized e.g. nursing homes - ok we missed the detention centres, but we covered the old folks home 
• schools, workplaces and other essential places have established preventive measures - there are SOP but the concern is compliance
• risk of importing new cases can be managed - we have a mandatory quarantine
• communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to live under a new normal - I have seen lots of ad on TV and of course we have the daily MOH briefings

We still pass.  

If there is any point that is a grey area, I think it is the last one as we seem to have political and other thought leader making a statement that doesn’t make sense in the light of a new normal:

• Malaysiakini had the PAS information chief saying that the move to deport all detainees who have been tested negative is part of a larger effort to save Malaysians from being exposed to the risk of infection – we are infected by those positives and not those who are not sick!

• The Malay Mail had an article where a number of “economic observers” implied that as long as there are still cases in the country, there is the potential of re-imposition of restrictions and this will have a bearing on consumer confidence – the new normal means living with Covid 19 and we cannot make plans assuming that the virus will go away

Any economic activity must be because we have learned to operate with the virus in the background e.g. wear masks, have surged in cases and occasionally some EMCO. Since the bulk of the economic activities are undertaken by those between 20 to 60 years old, these are not in the high-risk group (in terms of mortality).  I am not an economist, but surely many activities could operate on such a basis. 

Actually, the number of cases/clusters that are work-related is still small.  I estimated that based on the total cases as of 27 May

• 5 % are work-related (construction, factory, mall, office)
• 4 % are from the market

The biggest source is attending religious events. 

Economic activity	No of cases	Reference
Religious events	3560	Tabligh, Church
Education	683	Tahfiz
Construction	88	Setia + 2 KL
Factory	161	Pedas
Retail	48	Cheras mall
Misc office	109	Italy, Case 26
Markets	271
Detainee	282	3 centres
Returnees	462
Bal	1955	EMCO,
Total	7619

Source:  A re-casting of MOH info

 

You may argue that we are still in the early days and we will probably have more cases which are work-related. 

However, the other way to look at it is that employers are probably more careful since they can easily be identified and held accountable whereas for infections from residential areas (especially where there are lots of foreign workers), I am not sure who the authorities are going to hold accountable.  If you take this view then there will be more residential clusters than work clusters.

But the takeaway message is that we should continue to ban public gatherings, especially those where there will be difficulty in recording the attendees.  It is not so much only about preventing the transmission, but also the ability to trace all when an infection is detected.

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PS: This blog is for me to better understand COVID 19 as this will impact my investments. If you are also into equities, follow me at i4value.asia

Disclaimer:  I am not an epidemiologist, healthcare worker, pharmacist or staff in the Ministry of Health, but rather is someone with a strong interest in numerical analysis.  The content is an attempt to understand what is happening in the battle against Covid 19 from a data-based perspective. The opinions expressed here are based on information extracted from readily available public sources but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such.